by Lionesses of Africa Operations Department
Without doubt the greatest playwright this world has ever known, not least because his plays delve deep into the psyche of the human mind and thereby stay relevant for all age, William Shakespeare knew a thing or two about decision making and their consequences, intended or otherwise. From the horrific decision by Macbeth to kill the King; to the indecision of Hamlet fighting with his thoughts and morals (to kill the King); to the madness of King Lear following his insistence that his Daughters tell him which loves him more; to the jealous decisions of Othello utterly convinced that his wife is cheating on him; to the horrific unintended consequences of Romeo and Juliet, with both dead in the end (he wrote so many incredible plays, we should perhaps stop there!). But decisions rule our lives.
It was as true around the year 1600 (when Uncle Will was writing his best stuff) as it is now. The agony shown in these plays reveals just how difficult decisions can be and how one wrong decision or even the speed of decision can turn an entire future. Yet our lives are controlled by decisions, some banal (which hat or broach looks best), some everyday (cross the road now?) to some very serious (taking on debt or equity to finance a new factory).
Hamlet to us is one of the most facinating because of the battle Hamlet has with his own thoughts and morals. In his famous lectures of 1818, the great English poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge (‘STC’) suggested that Hamlet becomes increasingly indecisive because he is alone for far too long with his own thoughts. This turned on its head previous thoughts that Hamlet simply did not have the guts. It is true that some indecision in our own lives may be because of a lack of courage, indeed Lady Macbeth accused her husband of being a coward for procrastinating, but in reality most indecision is because we simply cannot make up our minds. We think far too long about an issue and end up being bogged down in the pros and cons until doing nothing seems to be the best solution…not recognising that the mud in which we were originally stuck and that demanded a decision, continues to rise…
Throughout the play Hamlet becomes increasingly frustrated by his indecision, so he is aware of this, yet each new thought seems to push him deeper into the mud.
The great poet STC (to his pals) pointed out in his lecture (here) that: “Man is distinguished from the brute animals in proportion as thought prevails over sense: but in the healthy processes of the mind, a balance is constantly maintained between the impressions from outward objects and the inward operations of the intellect;—for if there be an overbalance in the contemplative faculty, man thereby becomes the creature of mere meditation, and loses his natural power of action.”
This overbalance, or imbalance as we generally know it, is critical. Indeed Hamlet’s downfall is exactly because of this imbalance. A decision is required and he fails to deliver until it is too late.
Anyone of us who has held or is holding a position of power knows this only too well. Becoming too wrapped up in our own thoughts misses so many opportunities, anyone of which could change our futures and the future of our business for the better.
We also know only too well that battle in our minds to procrastinate, to put off the decision. A battle within, that as we grow in wisdom as leaders, becomes lessened, but it is still a battle - even if only to gather more facts, more data (which experience has taught us matters). But then what data? What facts? Have we enough? Too little? Have we fallen into the causation vs correlation trap? …and so on.
“[Hamlet] Act I, scene iv. The unimportant conversation with which this scene opens is a proof of Shakespeare's minute knowledge of human nature. It is a well established fact, that on the brink of any serious enterprise, or event of moment, men almost invariably endeavour to elude the pressure of their own thoughts by turning aside to trivial objects and familiar circumstances…”. (STC)
So how to find a clear path through the fog that is our minds and our desire ‘perchance to dream’? (As an aside - those three words, such poetry in just that phrase! Say them out loud, so soft and welcoming - Uncle Will at his best)…but we digress, er…some might say procrastinate!
Back to our story this week. How do we create that fair but firm leadership that takes decisions and then drives them through. Is it nature or nurture that creates leadership? Can we really learn this art?
We were reminded of this when whilst preparing for COP26 we heard of the death of Colin Powell. The first Black US Secretary of State died from complications from Covid19. This was no political stance, he had already had his two jabs and was waiting for his booster when he fell ill. As he would be the first to agree, timing is everything. Reading the comments of the many obituaries, there is no doubt that there was huge respect for this ex soldier, military leader, diplomat and statesman. He was also a master of management and brought to the world an equation that everyone could understand as to how great leaders make decisions. He said, believed and certainly showed that “[g]reat leaders are almost always great simplifiers, who can cut through argument, debate and doubt, to offer a solution everybody can understand.”
This equation if followed takes you effortlessly away from the fear of not having enough data, of not seeing all the facts whilst highlighting the error in waiting for too much:
“P=40 to 70, in which P stands for the probability of success and the numbers indicate the percentage of information acquired…
Once the information is in the 40 to 70 range, go with your gut.”
Each leader is different, some more data driven, some more gut driven, there is no right answer which is why Powell leaves this huge area between 40&70 to ‘personalise’ both from your point of view and of course from a business side or for a particular problem. Have a trusted right hand woman who has proven herself time and time again, you’d be more relaxed around the 40% area. Some young buck who has arrived with the latest MBA theories, well 70% might well be where you start to consider.
So why not wait until we have all of the data, all of the information? 100%? That is the problem that Hamlet had, but the time he decided and followed through it was too late and he suffered terribly. He had, in modern parlance ‘analysis paralysis’ and that always brings risk.
If you think back to when you procrastinated over a decision, you will see that in almost cases it increased the risk. So you waited and waited until you had far too much information to cut the risk down to what you thought was the bare minimum, and it actually increased risk! How so? Sadly the more delay, the more discussions, the more people involved, so the probability of someone else seeing, hearing or simply imagining that opportunity, increases exponentially. It might not even be an opportunity, it might be a problem that has to be tackled, left for too long and the rot could destroy all your work. Leave it to 100%, you are in trouble.
Jump before the 40%, well you are either too brave or too crazy or both. This is Macbeth, he forced it through far too fast egged on by his wife. As our poet lecturer STC says:
“Thus it is that this tragedy [of Hamlet] presents a direct contrast to that of Macbeth; the one proceeds with the utmost slowness, the other with a crowded and breathless rapidity.”
The ends of both Macbeth (less than 40%) and Hamlet (more than 70%) show this in gory detail. Suffice to say that Macbeth having usurped the King is surprised that this upsets many. Had he waited and built a coalition, sort out supporters, prepared the best time to remove the King, perhaps the ending might have been different, but no, he rushed in. In the end, with his wife dead and with clearly less than 40% of the information and certainly less support, he dies at the hands of Macduff in battle.
Hamlet? Having taken so long it too all goes horribly wrong, not least because he discovers the King is now looking to kill him! The play ends with a duel, during which the King, Queen, Hamlet's opponent and Hamlet himself are all killed (yes, Shakespeare loved to make a dramatic point!).
All too often, too little of something makes us poor, but as one of our heroes this week, the poet and lecturer STC said the same is true of too much, in Hamlets case, of thinking, of analysing:
“Inopem me copia fecit”, or ‘abundance makes me poor’.
Stay safe.